Mi várható az ingatlanpiacon 2019-ben?

A jövő év egyik nagy kérdése, hogy vajon robog-e tovább az ingatlanpiaci gyorsvonat, stagnál, esetleg lassan elkezdenek zuhanni az árak? A cikkben elemezni fogjuk az idei évet és megmutatjuk, mi várható jövőre és az áfa növekedése után.

Idén is pezsgett az ingatlanpiac

Azt már jól látni, hogy idén a piac valósággal robogott, hiszen rengeteg adás-vétel történt. A Portfolio cikke szerint összesen 143.082 ingatlan cserélt gazdát, amennyiben pedig decemberben további 11.000 adás-vétel történik, akkor egy 10 éves rekord dőlhet meg. Sőt, akár még a 2008-as értéket is elérheti, amire nem volt példa azóta, hogy kirobbant a világválság.

És hogy miképp is alakult a piac, számszerűsítve? Ahogyan a Marketing és Média online cikke is mutatja, az eladott ingatlanokat tekintve a használt tégla lakások ára nőtt a legkisebb mértékben. Ez számszerűsítve azt jelenti, hogy Budapesten 14,2 százalékos növekedés után idén 553 ezer forint az átlagos négyzetméterár. Ezzel szemben vidéken 7,7 százalékos emelkedést követően “csupán” 234 ezer forint.

Ebből már jól látszik az, hogy jövőre is erősödés várható az ingatlanpiacon.

Nem ér véget a növekedés

Jövőre a Duna House szakértői szerint még dinamikusabban fejlődik majd a piac, ami akár 160-180.000 eladott lakást is jelenthet. Ahogyan a Pénzcentrum cikke is rámutat, az eladás mértéke nagyban függ attól, hogy mennyi lesz az újépítésű projektek kifutási határideje. Ezenkívül sok településen megfigyelhető az a tendencia, hogy a téglalakások és a panellakások ára közti különbség egyre kisebb, sőt néhol már utolérték egymást. Ennek oka, hogy a párok és a gyermekes családok jellemzően az 50-60 négyzetméteres panellakásokat keresik. Természetesen az is kérdés, hogy a fővárosi panelek mekkora növekedés mellett tudják megtartani a versenyképességüket.

Csúszhatnak az építés alatti ingatlanok

Az újépítésű fővárosi ingatlanok esetében körülbelül fél év csúszás várható és alig 40 százalékuk készül csak el határidőre. – írja a HVG. Pedig a budapesti panelekre láthatóan van és lesz is igény, hiszen ezeket az ingatlanokat lehet a leghamarabb – átlagosan 58 nap alatt – eladni.

A Duna House elemzési vezetője, Benedikt Károly arra figyelmeztet, hogy ha bárki bizonytalan az időzítésben, kérje szakértő segítségét, akár ingatlan adásról, akár vételről legyen szó.

Vajon mi várható a piacon 2020 után?

A 2020-as év is izgalmasnak ígérkezik, hiszen január elsejével a mostani 5 százalékról 27 százalékosra nő a jelenleg még kedvezményes áfa, amit az újépítésű lakások után kell fizetni – ez pedig visszavetheti a fejlesztéseket. Bár a szakértők szerint nem egyik pillanatról a másikra, drasztikusan ugrik meg, hanem fokozatosan növekszik, ez mégis sok bizonytalanságot és kérdést hoz magával, így szinte lehetetlen megjósolni, hogy mit is hoz az új évtized ingatlanpiaci téren.

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